UCAS has finally released the equalities data associated with the 2023 university entry in the UK. Usually released along with other data in January, for some reason it was delayed. The reason for this is unclear as the data did not contain anything unexpected. There is no significant change in the long-established pattern of students entering university across the POLAR 4 and the multiple equality measure (MEM) quintiles. The large gap in representation between the least and most advantaged remains largely the same. But the situation is now unsustainable with inflation eating into fee income to the new low of £4,900 per student in 2012 money. The result is UK student numbers dropping and there is a strong suspicion that the need for more fees from students coming from outside the UK is displacing home students.
The UCAS data resources ‘Guide to using the ‘Sex, area background and ethnic group 2023’ are available in a form that’s easy to navigate for an overview. The source data is less accessible in a series of .csv files. In addition, Wonkhe has provided a very useful resource that enables searches of individual university data with ‘UCAS equalities data, 2023 cycle’. It is all illuminating, and the trend towards fewer UK students seems to be setting in and meeting the expectations of a government in England trying to deter students from university.
Looking into the source data, the first thing apparent is the drop off in student numbers from 2022. After a long period of expansion, the numbers are steadily declining. Figure 1 shows that this is affecting universities across the board using the UCAS higher, medium, and lower entrance qualifications tariff measures.
Shown here is the rate of 18-year-old placed students as number per 10,000 in the population. This corrects for changes in the population and, despite the ongoing increase in the population of 18-year-olds continuing till at least 2030, the numbers appear set to fall further. This is also evident in the 2024 application data as observed by TEFS in March after the release of the January 2024 application deadlines (TEFS 2nd March 2024 ‘Putting the boot in: student applications are falling’). The signs are no looking good with the likelihood of fewer students also coming from outside the UK.
Are the least advantaged students being deterred?
This is a valid question given the aspiration of ‘widening participation’. Figure 2 shows the overall picture for the rate of 18-year-old applicants accepted to university last year from the POLAR 4 Quintile areas. Note that here TEFS has used the full Y-axis scale unlike UCAS who constricts scales for effect. POLAR is at version 4 and is based upon post-codes divided by participation rates from low (Quintile 1) to high (Quintile 5) neighbourhoods. It is often used a proxy measure for ‘disadvantage’ despite all areas having a varying mix of advantaged and less advantaged. As an aside, the measure just doesn’t work in Scotland where there is greater social mixing across areas.
While UCAS notes that more students from Quintile 1 areas are applying to more selective universities, the proof lies in how many get in. Unfortunately, the data here shows that little has changed since 2010. Expressed as the entry rate by percentage, the gap between the POLAR 4 Quintiles remains much that same throughout. That is, the more advantaged do much better. While the overall entry rate rose steadily for all groups, the decline appeared in 2022 and again in 2023. This has affected students from all POLAR4 Quintile areas. Much has been made about how more students from disadvantaged areas access university, but little is said about the simple fact that the same was true of all other students. The pattern for each year remains much the same despite the efforts. Sure enough, the decline is now affecting them all the same. Back in 2018, TEFS predicted that at the rate of change then, it would take till 2204 for the widening participation gap to be filled (TEFS 19th October 2028 ‘OfS progress on widening participation: Reserve your seat now for 2204AD’).
The song remains the same.
UCAS has more recently favoured using the multiple equality measure (MEM) that it developed as its “principal measure of equality”. This is more representative and combines area, income background, school sector, sex, and ethnic group into a single measure. The result is Figure 3 that shows a starker divide than seen using the POLAR 4 measure.
This is a shocking indication that any pretence of improvements in ‘widening participation’ is misguided and a mirage. The music has not changed and the old song remains the same.
Needs must.
Setting aside the obvious social background bias associated with access to a university education, there must be other factors at play. Its not just the numbers of less advantaged students declining, it’s a trend across all groups. The decline in Quintile 5 student numbers must be concerning many of our universities. In Scotland there is a cap on numbers and this has been lowered recently to cut costs. There is also a cap in Northern Ireland. However, numbers are uncapped in England and Wales. Most universities have made large increases in the numbers of students from outside the UK to bolster fee income. This clearly cross-subsidises facilities for UK students as inflation eats into the value of the frozen fee income. Mark Corver of DataHE has calculated the fee income per student has dropped to below £4,900 in 2012 money. This is clearly unsustainable and explains why fewer UK students are being taken on. The capacity of most of our universities is at its limit and foreign students represent the only sustainable route. They are now displacing UK students as a matter of need not desire.
This has reached such a high level of concern that it has prompted the Education Committee to launch an inquiry ‘International students in English universities’. This is urgent and the call for evidence will remain open only until 24th May 2024. It is seeking to address “The impact on the availability of places for domestic students”. But they cannot blame universities for this because they are simply trying to keep their heads above water. The blame lies squarely at the door of the government who have deliberately allowed this to happen.
“Change it had to come. We knew it all along”.
But we hope we don’t get fooled again and the new boss is not the same as the old boss.
The author, Mike Larkin, retired from Queen’s University Belfast after 37 years teaching Microbiology, Biochemistry and Genetics.