Recent attacks on our universities in the media have refuelled the government’s deliberate campaign of deterring students from university. The attacks are serious and amount to ‘putting the boot in’ to damage the reputation of our universities. The latest data from UCAS on the number of applicants for 2024 indicates that the strategy is working. Despite the population of 18-year-olds set to rise in the coming years up to at least 2030, the number of applicants is falling. This is exacerbated by inflation costs and falling financial support. The effect is likely to impact prospective students from less advantaged backgrounds who will have realised that little or no family support and hours in part-time work can only hit their final degree grade.
Last year was so depressing it could be summarised in a few words. The predictions made by TEFS largely came to pass. There was a rapid widening of the disadvantage gap amongst students and loss of any sense of fairness.
Student finances declining, university finances in crisis, rise in part-time jobs, loans costing more, maintenance loans pegged back, conflict with university staff, conflict with the university regulator, examination reliability in tatters, T-levels in crisis, BTECs declining along with choice, new baccalaureate a long way off, foreign students under fire. It goes on into 2024 as students are deterred by perceptions of poor value, and above all, the costs.
As an aside added 5th March 2024: The students are revolting.
There has been considerable speculation about the date of the upcoming election. The spring budget is unlikely to offer much for hard pressed students or universities. So, the level of dissatisfaction from students is bound to boil over soon. The current thinking is that the election will be in May. Certainly this would blindside students in the middle of their examinations. An election in October would also avoid many disgruntled students but the rot will have set in by then with a new cohort. November could see an election in the middle of student protests. Whilst Conservatives might want to enjoy a last paid holiday this summer, and seek employment elsewhere, the leadership might go for broke in May.
Applicant numbers falling.
The latest data from UCAS shows that the government’s plan to reduce numbers is working. The numbers applying are falling this year whilst the population is still set to rise until 2030. The overall application rate across the UK has declined to 41.3%. However, the rate in England has dropped from 44.1% in 2022 and 42.3% last year to 42.1% this year.
Whilst the picture is complex across the age range the trend is very clear. Figure 1 illustrates how the situation is changing over time for 18-year-olds.
UCAS, along with others, has presented the decline on very compressed Y-axes for dramatic effect. But Figure 1 gives a more realistic view and projects the numbers for another 10 years using ONS population data. Nevertheless, the current trend under a best-case scenario will see the proportion of 18-year-olds applying for university decline markedly as the population rises. This is a substantial number of lost students and will stress many universities who will have planned for an increase in numbers, not a decline.
The diminishing chances for less advantaged students.
The financial squeeze has also started to impact the proportion of applicants from less advantaged and low participation areas. The announcement back in January that the maintenance support would only increase by 2.5% this year will have come as a major blow to many applicants already in the system. The question now arises about how many will find they cannot take up offered places later this year. Those with less family backing will have some serious planning to do.
Figure 2 shows the proportion of applicants from the different POLAR version 4 Quintiles over the years.
It is clear that there has been a very small increase in applicants from the lowest participation neighbourhoods, Quintiles 1 and 2, over time. However, this trend has now stalled, and one might expect it to go into reverse. But this would seem to be the aim of the government. Only those from families with the finances to support their offspring will feel confident. With full maintenance loans insufficient to support students away from home, many will opt to commute. Those from families in the squeezed middle will find themselves worse off with even less coming from their means tested maintenance loans. They are surely at breaking point.
Publicity adding fuel to the fire.
Rather than making decisions about access to universities, the government is encouraging adverse publicity while also squeezing the financial support offered. This is using nudge unit tactics whilst sitting back in their armchairs and letting the numbers fall while doing nothing constructive. It appears to be hellbent on denigrating universities and what they have to offer and continues this with deliberate determination. The damage is now becoming critical as people across the world begin to associate UK universities with ‘Micky Mouse’ degrees.
Putting the boot in.
Back in January the Sunday Times did not hold back with ‘Cash for courses: top universities recruit foreign students on low grades’. The reliance on higher fees from students coming from outside the UK may have tempted some, but it is not so simple. The Times target was the rise of access courses that students must pass before entering mainstream degree courses. The real news is that many universities have access courses and recruit onto these courses from the UK as well as elsewhere. They are a second chance for many, especially disadvantaged students, who would otherwise miss out. The damage to the reputation of our universities was compounded by an undercover video to go with the article. Quoting one ‘recruitment official representing four Russell Group Universities has caused extensive damage.
“If you can take the lift, why go through the hardest route?” He added: “International [students] pay more money and the [universities] will receive almost double, so they give leeway for international students.”
The recruitment of students from outside the UK is already being hit by tighter visa rules, so this is very concerning. But targeting access courses for closure would have the perverse effect of cutting access for many less advantaged students.
Universities a ‘joke’.
By February, Isolde Walters for the Telegraph pitched in with ‘A degree to sell a house? British universities are becoming a joke’. Some might say this was highly unprofessional and reinforces the stereotype of the spoilt rich student.
“I studied English literature at King’s College London and had a pleasant enough time gallivanting around the capital, doing an awful lot of partying and squeezing in some reading too. Did those studies set me up for my career? I don’t think so”.
Walters seemed to have time on her hands to study and enjoyed life at university. Others would disagree this was their experience. She has indeed a degree from Kings College and an MA in Journalism from the City University. There’s no doubt she has honed her writing skills. But I wonder if the Telegraph and others would have hired her without a degree and the contacts she made while socialising in London.
The author, Mike Larkin, retired from Queen’s University Belfast after 37 years teaching Microbiology, Biochemistry and Genetics. He was not a ‘diamond student’.